1] Will borrowing costs decrease in 2024?
According to The Straits Times on Jan 2, 2024, lower borrowing costs in Singapore is expected in 2024 as US Federal Reserve signalled it could cut rates in 2024 and beyond.
2] The Federal Reserve System (FED) is likely to cut rates gradually in the medium term
Currently FED Funds rate is around 5.25 – 5.5%. In 2024, FED is expected to cut rates 3 times or 75 basis points hence the median projected could come down to 4.5 – 4.75%. In 2025, another 4 cuts or 100 basis point reaching 3.5 – 3.75%. In 2026, another 3 cuts or 75 basis points to 2.75 – 3%. Into the long term, median projected FED Funds rate to hover around 2.5%.
FED Funds rates are closely correlated to SORA rates. As FED Funds rates trend downwards, SORA rates would also follow suit. SORA rates are currently around 3.7%.
Mortgages in Singapore are pegged to SORA, a decrease in SORA rates would lead to a decrease in financing costs, spurring interest in real estate. Homebuying activities and transactions are expected to receive a boost in 2024.
The past 14 years (2008 – 2022) of low interest environment has supported home buying activities, transaction volumes for Singapore private property had stayed high during periods of low SORA rates.
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